WS9: Economic Analysis of Variability and Penetration

Wave and tidal resources around the UK display significant seasonal, daily and hourly variability. The extent to which these resources may be developed is frequently assessed in terms of the network impact of their variability and the economic implications for developers and network operators. Ultimately the level of penetration will depend on market conditions, shaped in part by energy policies, and the true costs to consumers taking into account the costs of energy provision and delivery, including balancing and system marginal costs.

The work stream will build on the outcomes of Phase 1 to apply optimal portfolio theory to examine potential gains arising from diversification through a portfolio of marine energy sites, and then of marine energy within a broader energy portfolio, using cost and area-specific marine energy attributes. The results of the analysis will provide the cost and other inputs to a computable general equilibrium analysis of the economic, social and environmental impacts of increased penetration of marine and other renewable energies. A range of future electricity generation scenarios will be explored for the UK and its regions against which the impacts of alternative levels of marine penetration will be compared. The policy mechanisms required to achieve desired levels of penetration will be examined.